基于贝叶斯网络的模糊语言多属性决策模型

王瑞雪; 司书宾; 张守华

基于贝叶斯网络的模糊语言多属性决策模型

1.
西北工业大学机电学院, 西安 710072;
2.
西北工业大学国防科技研究院, 西安 710072

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71101116)

航空科学基金项目(2009ZE53052)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
王瑞雪(1989-)，硕士研究生，研究方向为组合优化和数学建模，wtx20070309@126.com;司书宾(联系人)，副教授，博士，sisb@nwpu.edu.cn

王瑞雪(1989-)，硕士研究生，研究方向为组合优化和数学建模，wtx20070309@126.com;司书宾(联系人)，副教授，博士，sisb@nwpu.edu.cn

计量
- 文章访问数: 206
- HTML全文浏览量: 30
- PDF下载量: 5
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2011-05-14
- 刊出日期: 2015-06-10

Fuzzy-language Multiple-attribute Decision-making Model Based on Bayesian Network

1.
School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072;
2.
Defense Science Technology Rcrdeme, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072

摘要

摘要: 针对模糊语言多属性决策问题,提出了一种多属性决策贝叶斯网络模型(MADMBN)。该模型根据因果依赖关系把多属性决策层次结构转化成贝叶斯网络结构,降低了多属性决策层次结构的复杂度。分析了模糊语言多属性决策的层次结构(MADMHS),根据MADMHS建立MADMBN;详述了MADMHS的元素在二态和多态情况下向MADMBN节点的转化方法;利用模糊综合评价法指标体系等级域的模糊关系矩阵和属性权重计算MADMBN节点的条件概率,并给出了MADMBN节点的重要度分析。通过科研项目申请实例与层次分析法对比验证了该模型的有效性和实用性,结果表明了MADMBN通过计算与理想解的相对接近程度不仅选择了最优方案,而且确定了该方案的状态,并且基于重要度分析对MADMBN节点进行灵敏度分析,识别影响方案的关键瓶颈。
- 多属性决策 /
- 模糊综合评价法 /
- 贝叶斯网络
Abstract: With the multiple-attribute decision-making model,we convert the hierarchical structure of multiple-attribute decision making into the Bayesian Network structure from binary state to multiple states,thus reducing the complexity of the hierarchical structure.Then,we calculate the conditional probabilities of the nodes of the Bayesian Network,using the fuzzy relational matrix of the grade field of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation indexes and the attribute weights.We also analyze the importance of the Bayesian network nodes.Finally,we verify the effectiveness of the multiple-attribute decision-making model by comparing the application example from our research project with the hierarchical analysis method.The comparison results show that our multiple-attribute decision-making model can not only select one optimal scheme and determine its state by calculating the degree of closeness to the ideal solution but also find out the bottleneck that affects the optimal scheme by doing the importance analysis.
- multiple- attribute decision- making model /
- hierarchical structure /
- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in-dex

HTML全文

参考文献(19)

[1]	徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,2004
[2]	Hwang C L,Yoon K S.Multiple Attribute Decision Making:Methods and Applications[M]. Berlin:Springer,1981
[3]	徐玖平,吴巍.多属性决策的理论与方法[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,2006
[4]	Levrat E,Voisin A,Bombardier S,Bremont J.Subjective evalu-ation of car seat comfort with fuzzy set techniques[J]. Interna-tional Journal of Intelligent Systems,1997,12(11～12):891～913
[5]	Bordogna G,Fedrizzi M,Pasi G.A linguistic modeling of con-sensus in group decision making based on OWA operator[J]. IEEE Transcations on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,1997,27(1):126～132
[6]	徐泽水.纯语言多属性群决策方法研究[J]. 控制与决策,2004,19(7):778～781,786
[7]	戴跃强,徐泽水,李琰,达庆利.语言信息评估新标度及其应用[J]. 中国管理科学,2008,16(2):145～149
[8]	徐泽水.语言多属性决策的目标规划模型[J]. 管理科学学报,2006,9(2):9～16
[9]	徐泽水.基于IOWA算子的模糊语言偏好矩阵排序方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术,2003,25(4):440～442,448
[10]	Pearl J.Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems:Net-works of Plausible Inference[M]. San Mateo,CA:MorganKaufmann,1988
[11]	Pearl J.Graphical Models for Probabilistic and Causal Rea-soning[M]. The Computer Science and Engineering Handbook.Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1997:697～714
[12]	师义民,徐伟,秦超英,许勇.数理统计[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2009
[13]	Lee S,Abbott P.Bayesian networks for knowledge discovery inlarge datasets:basics for nurse researchers[J]. Journal of Bio-medical Informatics,2003,36:389～399
[14]	Fenton N,Neil M.Making decisions:using Bayesian nets andMCDA.knowledge-based systems[J]. 2001,14(7):307～325
[15]	叶跃祥,糜仲春,王宏宇,梁晓艳.基于贝叶斯网络的不确定环境下多属性决策方法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2007,(4):107～113
[16]	Watthayu W,Yun P.A Bayesian network based framework formulti-criteria decision making[A]. Proceedings of the 17thInternational Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Anal-ysis[C],Whistler,B.C.Canada August,6～11,2004
[17]	Herrera F,Martinez L.A model based on linguistic 2-tuples fordealing with multigranualr hierarchical linguistic contexts inmulti-expert decision-making[J]. IEEE Transcations on Sys-tems,Man,and Cybernetics,2001,31:227～233
[18]	胡永宏,贺恩辉.综合评价方法[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2000
[19]	周忠宝.基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评估方法及应用研究[D]. 长沙:国防科学技术大学,2006