Reliability Analysis of Failure Dynamic Mechanical System using Vine Copula Model
-
摘要: 提出机械系统的失效动态相关可靠性可采用动态Vine Copula模型进行描述。采用Vine Copula函数将复杂多失效相关的机械系统可靠性问题转换为对多个二维动态Copula函数进行分析。利用非参数估计算法,提出经验分布函数-局部极大似然两步法估计动态Copula函数中的时变参数,从而建立动态Vine Copula 模型来描述多失效动态相关机械系统的可靠性;并重点对机械系统的串联体系可靠性进行建模与分析,进而对机械系统的可靠度进行求解。最后通过单级减速器系统的算例验证了所述方法的合理性及有效性。
-
关键词:
- 机械系统 /
- Vine Copula函数 /
- 非参数估计算法 /
- 失效动态相关 /
- 可靠度计算
Abstract: The dynamic reliability of mechanical system failure can be described by dynamic Vine Copula model. The Vine Copula function is used to transform the reliability problems of complex and multiple failures related to the analysis of multiple two-dimensional dynamic Copula functions; using the nonparametric estimation algorithm, the empirical distribution function-local maximum likelihood two-step method is proposed to estimate the time-varying parameters in the dynamic Copula function; next, a dynamic Vine Copula model is established to describe the reliability of multi-failure dynamic related mechanical systems. The study focus on the mechanical system of the series system reliability modeling and analysis, then solve out the reliability of the mechanical system. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the method.-
Key words:
- mechanical properties /
- function /
- failure modes /
- failure analysis /
- parameter estimation
-
[1] Garro A, Tundis A. On the reliability analysis of systems and SoS:the RAMSAS method and related extensions[J]. IEEE Systems Journal, 2015,9(1):232-241 [2] 周志刚,徐芳.考虑强度退化和失效相关性的风电齿轮传动系统动态可靠性分析[J].机械工程学报,2016,52(11):80-87 Zhou Z G, Xu F. Dynamic reliability analysis of gear transmission system of wind turbine considering strength degradation and dependent failure[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2016,52(11):80-87(in Chinese) [3] 张义民.机械动态与渐变可靠性理论与技术评述[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(20):101-114 Zhang Y M. Review of theory and technology of mechanical reliability for dynamic and gradual systems[J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2013,49(20):101-114(in Chinese) [4] 孙玉秋,张祖明.基于相关性的机械系统可靠性设计理论[J].机械科学与技术,2006,25(5):576-579 Sun Y Q, Zhang Z M. Relevance-based reliability theory of mechanical systems[J]. Mechanical Science and Technology, 2006,25(5):576-579(in Chinese) [5] 唐家银,赵永翔,何平,等.机械系统相关性可靠度计算的Copula新理论[J].机械科学与技术,2009,28(4):532-535,541 Tang J Y, Zhao Y X, He P, et al. Copulas new theory for reliability calculation involving correlation in mechanical systems[J]. Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering, 2009,28(4):532-535,541(in Chinese) [6] Liu Y F, Fan X P, Lu D G. Time-dependent uncertainty analysis of structures based on copula functions[C]//Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). Reston, VA:American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014:1875-1887 [7] Sklar A. Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges[J]. Publication de l'Institut de Statistique de l'Université de Paris, 1959,8:229-231 [8] Kurowicka D, Joe H. Dependence modeling:vine copula handbook[M]. Singapore:World Scientific, 2010 [9] Jiang C, Zhang W, Han X, et al. A vine-copula-based reliability analysis method for structures with multidimensional correlation[J]. Journal of Mechanical Design, 2015,137(6):061405 [10] Li D Q, Tang X S, Zhou C B, et al. Uncertainty analysis of correlated non-normal geotechnical parameters using Gaussian copula[J]. Science China Technological Sciences, 2012,55(11):3081-3089 [11] Patton A J. Modelling asymmetric exchange rate dependence[J]. International Economic Review, 2006,47(2):527-556 [12] Cherubini U, Gobbi F, Mulinacci S, et al. Dynamic copula methods in finance[M]. Hoboken, NJ:Wiley, 2012 [13] 吴吉林,孟纹羽.时变混合Copula模型的非参数估计及应用研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(8):124-136,160 Wu J L, Meng W Y. Nonparametric estimation in time-varying mixture copula and its application in stock markets[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2013,30(8):124-136,160(in Chinese) [14] 喻天翔,张祖明.机械系统可靠性设计新理论和零件相关系数的求解[J].北京印刷学院学报,2002,10(3):16-22,27 Yu T X, Zhang Z M. The new theory of the machine system reliability and the solution of parts correlation coefficient[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication, 2002,10(3):16-22,27(in Chinese) [15] 赵勇,秦大同,武文辉.考虑失效相关的盾构机刀盘驱动多级行星传动系统的可靠性模型[J].中国机械工程,2011,22(5):522-527 Zhao Y, Qin D T, Wu W H. Reliability model of shield machine cutter drive multi-stage planetary transmission system considering failure relevance[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2011,22(5):522-527(in Chinese)
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 2344
- HTML全文浏览量: 494
- PDF下载量: 790
- 被引次数: 0