A Dual-Mode Prediction Model for Exhaust Temperature of Natural Gas Scroll Compressor
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摘要: 为了能够准确预测出天然气涡旋压缩机的排气温度，建立了实验系统，并针对主要部位进行了温度测量。通过建立多元回归预测模型、灰色预测模型和双预测模型对温度进行了分析，研究了入口温度，主轴转速，压力比等主要因素对排气温度的影响，并评估了模型的准确性，最终对不同运行状态下的排气温度进行预测、分析。结果表明：多元回归预测的误差为3.06%，灰色预测的误差为2.11%，双模预测的误差为1.69%，可见双模预测误差最小，稳定性最强；在影响排气温度的因素中，入口温度的影响程度最大，其次是主轴转速，压力比最小。Abstract: To accurately predict the exhaust temperature of a natural gas scroll compressor, an experimental system was established and the temperature in the main part of the scroll compressor was measured. By analyzing the temperature data, a multiple regression prediction model, a gray prediction model and a dual-mode prediction model were set up. Based on these models, the influence of such factors as inlet temperature, spindle speed and pressure ratio on the exhaust temperature are explored. Moreover, the accuracy of these models was evaluated. Finally, the exhaust temperature under different operating conditions is predicted and analyzed. The results show that the error of the multiple regression prediction model is 3.06%, the error of the gray prediction model is 2.11% and the error of the dual-mode prediction model is 1.69%. The dual-mode prediction model has the smallest error and the strongest stability. In addition, among the factors which affect exhaust temperature, the inlet temperature has the most apparent influence on the result, the spindle speed is the second and the pressure ratio is the smallest.
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表 1 样本数据
参数 样本 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 出口温度/℃ 51 53 64 84 106 137 139 138 138 150 152 入口温度/℃ 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.0 27.0 主轴转速/(r·min-1) 1 320 1 320 1 320 1 980 1 980 2 640 2 640 2 640 2 640 3 300 3 300 压力比 1.39 1.33 1.79 1.83 2.21 2.95 3.00 3.15 3.15 4.38 4.39 
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表 2 多元回归预测模型指标
参数名 系数 Sig 常数 0.63 T1>n>r R2=0.969 4 0.000 1 入口温度T1 -1.092 0.000 1 主轴转速n 0.940 3 F=44.68 0.000 1 压力比r 0.305 4 0.000 1
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表 3 灰色模型指标临界值
精度等级 指标临界值 σ ε C P 一级 0.01 0.90 0.35 0.95 二级 0.05 0.80 0.50 0.80 三级 0.10 0.70 0.65 0.70 四级 0.20 0.60 0.80 0.60
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表 5 入口温度为单一变量时的排气温度(主轴转速n=1 980~2 130 r/min，压力比r=2.3~2.6)
参数 样本 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 入口温度/℃ 16.75 18.76 20.82 22.81 24.78 26.65 28.62 30.60 多元预测/℃ 64.54 77.51 89.20 96.55 106.12 114.31 120.59 134.87 灰色预测/℃ 64.54 80.57 87.80 95.68 104.30 113.60 123.80 134.90 双模预测/℃ 64.54 79.04 88.50 96.12 105.21 113.96 122.19 134.89
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表 6 主轴转速为单一变量时的排气温度(入口温度T1=22 ℃~23 ℃，压力比r=2.3~2.6)
参数 样本 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 主轴转速/(r·min-1) 660 1 320 1 650 1 980 2 310 2 640 2 970 3 300 多元预测/℃ 31.54 68.93 92.39 104.27 118.09 128.09 146.22 162.99 灰色预测/℃ 32.28 68.80 94.50 108.10 125.30 133.80 142.70 149.20 双模预测/℃ 31.91 68.87 93.45 106.19 121.70 130.95 144.46 156.10
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表 7 压力比为单一变量时的排气温度(入口温度T1=22 ℃~23 ℃，主轴转速n=1 980~2 130 r/min)
参数 样本 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 压力比 1.42 1.86 2.17 2.59 2.91 3.23 3.89 5.12 多元预测/℃ 55.24 65.82 92.70 94.26 107.90 128.84 134.22 145.49 灰色预测/℃ 56.82 75.66 85.30 96.17 108.42 122.24 137.82 155.35 双模预测/℃ 56.03 70.74 89.00 95.22 108.16 125.54 136.02 150.42
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