留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

电动汽车动力电池充电能量的预测方法

胡杰 蔡世杰 黄腾飞 王成 杜常清

胡杰,蔡世杰,黄腾飞, 等. 电动汽车动力电池充电能量的预测方法[J]. 机械科学与技术,2020,39(6):926-936 doi: 10.13433/j.cnki.1003-8728.20190226
引用本文: 胡杰,蔡世杰,黄腾飞, 等. 电动汽车动力电池充电能量的预测方法[J]. 机械科学与技术,2020,39(6):926-936 doi: 10.13433/j.cnki.1003-8728.20190226
Hu Jie, Cai Shijie, Huang Tengfei, Wang Cheng, Du Changqing. Prediction Method of Charging Energy for Power Battery of Electric Vehicle[J]. Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering, 2020, 39(6): 926-936. doi: 10.13433/j.cnki.1003-8728.20190226
Citation: Hu Jie, Cai Shijie, Huang Tengfei, Wang Cheng, Du Changqing. Prediction Method of Charging Energy for Power Battery of Electric Vehicle[J]. Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering, 2020, 39(6): 926-936. doi: 10.13433/j.cnki.1003-8728.20190226

电动汽车动力电池充电能量的预测方法

doi: 10.13433/j.cnki.1003-8728.20190226
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(51775393)与柳州市科技计划项目(2018B0301b003)资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    胡杰(1984−),副教授,博士生导师,博士,研究方向为汽车控制与诊断,车联网,auto_hj@163.com

    蔡世杰:

  • 中图分类号: U469.72;TP181

Prediction Method of Charging Energy for Power Battery of Electric Vehicle

  • 摘要: 提出了一种基于机器学习中Stacking模型的电池充电能量预测方法,该方法通过对充电数据进行数据探索、特征工程和模型筛选,选取RMSE作为预测结果的评价指标,最后采用Stacking模型对充电能量作出预测。为了验证Stacking模型的预测结果,将Stacking模型与采用单个算法模型的预测结果进行对比,以确保方案的可行性。其结果表明,采用该模型进行预测时,其预测结果的RMSE分值为0.104 1,实现了比单个算法模型更好的预测效果。
  • 图  1  充电能量预测的技术构架

    图  2  Charge_energe和Charge_soc之间的关系图

    图  3  动力电池充电结束时SOC分布

    图  4  修正后Charge_energe和Charge_soc之间的关系图

    图  5  修正后动力电池充电结束时SOC分布

    图  6  4种聚类模型的标记结果

    图  7  贝叶斯高斯混合算法对所有车辆离群值的标记结果

    图  8  动力电池的充电能量分布

    图  9  对数似然函数$f({{X}},{{Y}},{{\lambda }})$与参数${\rm{\lambda }}$之间的关系曲线

    图  10  BOX-COX变换后动力电池的充电能量分布

    图  11  所有车辆的电池容量分布

    图  12  所有车辆充电时间和充电能量的分布

    图  13  多种聚类算法对不同充电模式的标记结果

    图  14  各特征的频率排序

    图  15  各算法模型的RMSE得分

    图  16  采用堆叠模型的学习曲线

    图  17  预测结果的相对误差

    图  18  预测结果的绝对误差

    表  1  数据分类与说明

    类型特征字符数据类型说明
    时间信息类 Charge_start_time int 充电开始时间
    Charge_end_time int 充电结束时间
    车辆信息类 Vehicle_id string 车辆唯一标志码
    Mileage float 充电开始时刻车辆仪表里程/km
    电池信息类 Charge_start_soc float 充电开始时刻动力电池soc/%
    Charge_end_soc float 充电结束时刻动力电池soc/%
    Charge_start_U float 充电开始时刻动力电池总电压/V
    Charge_end_U float 充电结束时刻动力电池总电压/V
    Charge_start_I float 充电开始时刻动力电池总电流/A
    Charge_end_I float 充电结束时刻动力电池总电流/A
    Charge_max_temp float 充电过程中电池系统最大温度/℃
    Charge_min_temp float 充电过程中电池系统最小温度/℃
    Charge_energy float 此充电过程的充电能量/ (kW·h)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  动力电池充电能量的基本特征

    类型特征字符数据类型说明
    时间信息类 Charge_time int 充电时间
    Day_of_week int 充电时间日标记
    Weekend int 充电时间周末标记
    Charge_start_hour int 充电开始时标记
    Hour_of_day int 充电时间日夜标记
    电池信息类 Soc_time float 充电过程中电池SOC的增长率
    Charge_diff_U float 充电起止电压差值/V
    Charge_diff_I float 充电起止电流差值/A
    Charge_diff_temp float 充电起止温度差/℃
    Charge_aver_U float 充电过程动力电池平均总电压/V
    Charge_aver_I float 充电过程动力电池平均总电流/A
    Charge_start_power float 充电开始功率/W
    Charge_end_power float 充电结束功率/W
    Charge_aver_power float 充充电过程中平均功率/W
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] Joshi K, Lakum A. Assessing the impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on distribution network operations using time-series distribution power flow analysis[C]//Proceedings of 2014 IEEE International Conference on Power Electronics, Drives and Energy Systems (PEDES). Mumbai, India: IEEE, 2014
    [2] Habib S, Kamran M, Rashid U. Impact analysis of vehicle-to-grid technology and charging strategies of electric vehicles on distribution networks–a review[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2015, 277: 205-214 doi: 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2014.12.020
    [3] Leou R C, Su C L, Lu C N. Stochastic analyses of electric vehicle charging impacts on distribution network[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2014, 29(3): 1055-1063 doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2013.2291556
    [4] Qian K J, Zhou C K, Allan M, et al. Modeling of load demand due to EV battery charging in distribution systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2011, 26(2): 802-810 doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2010.2057456
    [5] Arias M B, Bae S. Electric vehicle charging demand forecasting model based on big data technologies[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 183: 327-339 doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.080
    [6] Arias M B, Kim M, Bae S. Prediction of electric vehicle charging-power demand in realistic urban traffic networks[J]. Applied Energy, 2017, 195: 738-753 doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.02.021
    [7] 周志华. 机器学习[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2016

    Zhou Z H. Machine learning[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2016 (in Chinese)
    [8] Tang X P, Liu B Y, Lv Z, et al. Observer based battery SOC estimation: using multi-gain-switching approach[J]. Applied Energy, 2017, 204: 1275-1283 doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.079
    [9] 朱嘉欣, 包雨恬, 黎朝. 数据离群值的检验及处理方法讨论[J]. 大学化学, 2018, 33(8): 58-65 doi: 10.3866/PKU.DXHX201802008

    Zhu J X, Bao Y T, Li Z. Discussion on the method for testing and treating outliers[J]. University Chemistry, 2018, 33(8): 58-65 (in Chinese) doi: 10.3866/PKU.DXHX201802008
    [10] Castillo-Gutiérrez S, Lozano-Aguilera E D, Estudillo-Martínez M D. A new proposal to adjust a straight line to a normal Q-Q plot[J]. Journal of Mathematics and System Science, 2012, 2(5): 327-333
    [11] Taylor N. Realised variance forecasting under Box-Cox transformations[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33(4): 770-785 doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.04.001
    [12] 吴刘仓, 黄丽, 戴琳. Box-Cox变换下联合均值与方差模型的极大似然估计[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2012, 27(5): 3-8 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2012.05.001

    Wu L C, Huang L, Dai L. Maximum likelihood estimation for joint mean and variance models of Box-Cox transformation[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2012, 27(5): 3-8 (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2012.05.001
    [13] 孙吉贵, 刘杰, 赵连宇. 聚类算法研究[J]. 软件学报, 2008, 19(1): 48-61 doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1001.2008.00048

    Sun J G, Liu J, Zhao L Y. Clustering algorithms research[J]. Journal of Software, 2008, 19(1): 48-61 (in Chinese) doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1001.2008.00048
    [14] Wong T T. Performance evaluation of classification algorithms by k-fold and leave-one-out cross validation[J]. Pattern Recognition, 2015, 48(9): 2839-2846 doi: 10.1016/j.patcog.2015.03.009
    [15] Rodriguez J D, Perez A, Lozano J A. Sensitivity analysis of k-fold cross validation in prediction error estimation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2010, 32(3): 569-575 doi: 10.1109/TPAMI.2009.187
    [16] Mentaschi L, Besio G, Cassola F, et al. Problems in RMSE-based wave model validations[J]. Ocean Modelling, 2013, 72: 53-58 doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.003
    [17] Zheng H T, Yuan J B, Chen L. Short-term load forecasting using EMD-LSTM neural networks with a xgboost algorithm for feature importance evaluation[J]. Energies, 2017, 10(8): 1168 doi: 10.3390/en10081168
    [18] Ma X J, Sha J L, Wang D H, et al. Study on a prediction of P2P network loan default based on the machine learning LightGBM and XGboost algorithms according to different high dimensional data cleaning[J]. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, 2018, 31: 24-39 doi: 10.1016/j.elerap.2018.08.002
    [19] Wang D H, Zhang Y, Zhao Y. LightGBM: an effective miRNA classification method in breast cancer patients[C]//Proceedings of 2017 International Conference on Computational Biology and Bioinformatics. New Jersey, USA: ICCBB, 2017: 7-11
    [20] Zhang M, Fei X, Liu Z H. Short-term traffic flow prediction based on combination model of xgboost-lightgbm[C]//Proceedings of 2018 International Conference on Sensor Networks and Signal Processing (SNSP). Xi′an: IEEE, 2018
    [21] Pavlyshenko B. Using stacking approaches for machine learning models[C]//Proceedings of 2018 IEEE Second International Conference on Data Stream Mining & Processing. Lviv, Ukraine: IEEE, 2018
  • 加载中
图(18) / 表(2)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  558
  • HTML全文浏览量:  99
  • PDF下载量:  46
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-04-20
  • 刊出日期:  2020-06-05

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回