Reliability Analysis of Aircraft IDG Failure Data Censored Randomly by EM Algorithm
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摘要: 为了更为精确地分析随机删失情况下故障数据的可靠性,本文以统计学理论为支撑,提出将期望-极大值(Exception maximization,EM)算法应用于随机删失数据的还原处理过程中。采集B737NG飞机IDG部件故障数据,利用K-M估计法及MATLAB软件确定其寿命分布类型为两参数威布尔分布;利用EM算法估计随机删失情况下威布尔分布的未知参数;进行可靠性及维修性分析。实证分析结果表明,威布尔分布下考虑删失数据时的可靠性分析精度更高,并根据该结论对B737NG飞机IDG部件维修计划的制定提出具体建议。Abstract: In order to analyze the reliability of failure data under random censored more accurately, an reduction method based Exception Maximization(EM) algorithm for random censored data are proposed, which based on the statistics. Firstly, collecting failure data of IDG component of B737NG aircraft, determine that the life distribution type is two parameter Weibull distribution with K-M estimation method and MATLAB software; secondly, estimating the unknown parameters of Weibull distribution by EM algorithm for random censored data; finally, analyzing reliability and maintainability of IDG failure data. The analysis results show that the reliability analysis accuracy is much higher in the case of considering censored data under the Weibull distribution, the new results can be used in developing maintenance plan and optimizing maintenance scheme for IDG of B737NG aircraft.
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Key words:
- random censored /
- EM algorithm /
- reliability /
- Weibull distribution /
- MATLAB /
- K-M estimation
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表 1 B737NG飞机IDG故障间隔时间统计表
序号 故障间隔 1 3 765 2 5 232 3 9 085+ 4 10 789 5 11 297+ 6 11 356 7 13 099 8 13 678 9 13 921 10 14 092 11 14 325 12 14 378 13 15 263 14 15 783+ 15 15 865 16 16 000 17 16 457 18 16 623 19 17 158 20 17 521 21 17 532 22 18 920 23 20 189 24 22 333 25 23 699 26 24 019+ 27 24 923 28 28 298 29 30 801 30 34 599 注:带加号数据表示在相应位置的删失 表 2 各寿命分布的参数估计值
寿命分布 参数估计 指数分布 λ=17 339 威布尔分布 η=19 472, β=2.671 对数正态分布 μ=9.668, σ=0.475 6 -
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