Prediction of the Barrel Life Based on the Theoretical Degradation Simulation and the Experimental Data
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摘要: 针对身管的寿命预测一般采用理论(经验)公式或基于退化试验数据的方法,但是预测精度往往都不高。为减小预测寿命的置信区间,提出了一种将退化过程的模拟与性能退化的实测数据结合起来的分析方法。以某武器的身管为研究对象,基于随机有限元法和身管熔化烧蚀理论模型,得到内膛径向磨损量的分布规律,并转换为基于弹丸初速的理论模拟退化模型,然后结合小子样身管的试验数据,采用贝叶斯后验统计法对理论退化模型的分布参数进行了更新,最后对各种方法的寿命预测结果及其置信区间进行了比较分析,从而验证了方法的有效性。Abstract: Aiming to predict the barrel life, the theoretical(empirical) formula or the modeling method based onthe degradation data are generally adopted, but the prediction accuracy is not enough.In order to reduce theconfidence interval of predicted life, a data fusion model is obtained by combining the simulation of degradationprocess with the measured data of performance degradation.Considering a caliber weapon barrel as the researchobject, based on the stochastic finite element method, combined with barrel melting ablation prediction model, thedistribution rule of barrel inner surface radial wearing is obtained and converted to theoretical simulation degradationmodel which is based on the theory muzzle velocity.Then combining with a small sample barrel test data, theparameter of the model is updated by using the Bayes statistics.Finally, the various methods of the life predictionresults and the confidence interval are compared, and the effectiveness of the present method is verified.
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Key words:
- ablation /
- barrel life /
- Bayes statistics /
- computer simulation
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