Equipment Reliability Prediction Research Based on Weibull Probability and Statistical Analysis Method
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摘要: 以设备或部件的失效数据为对象,利用威布尔概率统计分析方法,对可靠性预测进行了研究。首先分析威布尔概率图上数据的散落情况,判定建立单个威布尔模型还是混合威布尔模型;其次估计模型的参数:对单个威布尔模型,提出了垂直残差平方和最小的y关于x的最小二乘法,以及水平残差平方和最小的x关于y的最小二乘法,并给定了两者择优选用的依据,对混合威布尔模型,提出了经多次迭代而收敛的最大期望值(expectation maximization,EM)算法;最后通过两组失效数据的实例分析,验证了模型选择原则和参数估计方法的可行性和有效性,并实现了设备的可靠性预测。Abstract: With the failure data of equipment or parts,the reliability prediction is studied by using Weibull probability and statistical analysis method.First,the scattered condition of failure data is analyzed based on the Weibull probability plot to judge the single Weibull or mixed Weibull model must be established.Secondly,the parameters of model are estimated： for the single Weibull model,the least-squares method of y on x to minimize the sum of squares of the vertical residuals and the least-squares method of x on y minimize the sum of squares of the horizontal residuals are presented to give the selected basis of them;for the mixed Weibull model,the expectation maximization（namely EM） algorithms of repeated iteration to convergence is presented.Finally,the two groups of failure data are applied to show that the model selection principles and the parameter estimation are feasible and effective,and the reliability prediction of equipment is achievable.
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