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论文:2014,Vol:32,Issue(5):744-748 |
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引用本文： |
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顾潮琪, 张才坤, 周德云, 冯琦. 基于直觉模糊贝叶斯网络多态系统可靠性分析[J]. 西北工业大学 |
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Gu Chaoqi, Zhang Caikun, Zhou Deyun, Feng Qi. Reliability Analysis of Multi-state Systems Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Bayesian Networks[J]. Northwestern polytechnical university |
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| 基于直觉模糊贝叶斯网络多态系统可靠性分析 |
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| 顾潮琪, 张才坤, 周德云, 冯琦 |
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| 西北工业大学 电子信息学院, 陕西 西安 710029 |
| 摘要: |
| 针对贝叶斯网络分析多态系统可靠性时各根节点不同状态的精确概率难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于直觉模糊贝叶斯网络的可靠性分析方法。该方法是将多位专家评估的各根节点不同状态发生的直觉模糊概率及各位专家权重通过直觉模糊加权平均算子求解出综合概率,由得分值函数和相应的数据处理获得各根节点不同状态发生的精确概率;通过贝叶斯网络计算叶节点不同状态发生的概率,以及叶节点处于不同状态时各根节点处于不同状态的概率和重要程度。仿真表明该方法能够精确地确定各根节点不同状态发生的概率,并能够有效提高贝叶斯网络处理不确定性问题的能力。 |
| 关键词:
可靠性
贝叶斯网络
多态系统
直觉模糊集
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| Reliability Analysis of Multi-state Systems Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Bayesian Networks |
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| Gu Chaoqi, Zhang Caikun, Zhou Deyun, Feng Qi |
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| Department of Electronics Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China |
| Abstract: |
| In view of the difficulty in determining the precision probability of each root node in different states whenBayesian Networks were employed to analyze multi-state systems reliability,a method based on intuitionstic fuzzyBayesian networks is proposed,in which the comprehensive probability is figured out with intuitionistic fuzzy weigh-ted average operator on the basis of the intuitionistic probability and corresponding weight of each of different statesof each root node given by each of several experts,the precision probability of each of several different states ofeach root node is obtained with the score function and the corresponding data processing,.The probability of leafnode in each of several different states is obtained with Bayesian networks,and the probability in each of severaldifferent states and the importance of each root node are calculated for the leaf node in each of several differentstates.The simulation results and their analysis show preliminarily that the method can accurately obtain the proba-bility of the root node in each of several different states,and can effectively improve the ability of Bayesian networksto deal with uncertainty problems. |
| Key words:
Bayesian networks
calculations
computer simulation
data processing
efficiency
functions
fuzzyset theory
fuzzy sets
mathematical operators
probability
reliability
reliability analysis
imcertainsystems
uncertainty analysis;infuitionistic fuzzy sets
multi-state systems
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| 收稿日期: 2013-11-01
修回日期:
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| DOI: |
| 基金项目: 航空科学基金(2011553021);西北工业大学基础研究基金(JC20110222)资助 |
| 通讯作者:
Email： |
| 作者简介: 顾潮琪(1979-)，西北工业大学博士研究生,主要从事航空火力控制及复杂系统建模研究。
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